What are your points worth? Three sources, three answers.

Travel Tuesday is December 1, and between the sale emails and the card offers, it felt like the right time to ask what your points are really worth. The honest answer depends on who you ask, and the gap is bigger than most people expect.

Three sources, three numbers

For Chase Ultimate Rewards, The Points Guy’s October 2026 valuation is 2.05¢ a point. Frequent Miler’s Reasonable Redemption Value is 1.5¢, and NerdWallet’s October 2026 estimate is 1.4¢ for Sapphire Preferred holders and 1.8¢ for Reserve holders. American Express Membership Rewards shows the same pattern, at 2.0¢ from TPG, 1.5¢ from Frequent Miler, and 1.3¢ from NerdWallet.

As an example, 60,000 Chase points are worth $1,230 at TPG’s number, $900 at Frequent Miler’s, and $840 at NerdWallet’s Preferred number. That’s a $390 spread on the same points. Plain cash back at 1¢ would be $600.

Why I lean on the lower number

The sources aren’t measuring the same thing. TPG’s figure reflects what a smart transfer to an airline or hotel partner can earn, while the lower ones are closer to what an ordinary redemption earns. Both are reasonable, but they answer different questions.

So I judge a redemption against the cautious number first. If a redemption beats the lower figure, I’m happy. If it only clears the higher figure on paper, I want to be sure I’d actually do the transfer and find the award seats.

Hotel points show how much programs differ, too. At TPG’s October values, 100,000 Hilton points are worth about $400, while 100,000 World of Hyatt points are worth about $1,650. Same number of points, wildly different dollars. If you want to see a hotel redemption worked through in detail, I did one in my hotel points math post.

The two-minute check

Divide the cash price by the number of points. A $450 flight for 30,000 points works out to 1.5¢ a point ($450 ÷ 30,000), which is an example of a redemption I’d be happy with, since it matches Frequent Miler’s value for Chase.

If you’re getting around 1¢ or less, I’d pay cash and save the points for something better. Just remember to account for any taxes and fees you’d still pay on an award, because they come out of the value.

Quick answers

How much are Chase Ultimate Rewards points worth?

It depends on the source. The Points Guy’s October 2026 valuation is 2.05¢ per point, Frequent Miler’s Reasonable Redemption Value is 1.5¢, and NerdWallet’s is 1.4¢ for Sapphire Preferred holders and 1.8¢ for Reserve holders.

How do I know if a points redemption is good?

Divide the cash price by the points. A $450 flight for 30,000 points is 1.5¢ a point. If you’re getting around 1¢ or less, paying cash and saving the points is usually the better move, after you account for taxes and fees on the award.

Are hotel points worth less than airline points?

It varies a lot by program. At TPG’s October 2026 values, 100,000 Hilton points are worth about $400 and 100,000 World of Hyatt points are worth about $1,650.

I’ll talk to you next week,
Chris

Related reading

• → Points vs. cash calculator. Cents per point, compared to a conservative benchmark.
• → Issue #4: hotel points math. A hotel redemption worked through in detail.
• → Issue #7: vacation credit card debt. What to know before you put a trip on a card.
• → Issue #25: Black Friday travel deals. How to tell a real deal from a banner.
• → Card finder. Compare travel cards.